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03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both of Saturday's three-year-old Kentucky Derby preps were won by horses that raced on the turf in their previous start. One was favored at Aqueduct while the other was the sixth choice in the betting at Santa Anita.
Awesome Act was favored in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes despite not having raced since November 7, 2009. His most recent effort was a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last November.
The chestnut colt came into the race with only a maiden turf victory under his belt in six career starts. He also had never been on conventional dirt with five grass races and one start on Polytrack in England.
Still, the public made him the 5-2 favorite in the 10-horse field and the $240,000 yearling purchase did not disappoint winning by 1 1/4-lengths in 1:43 4/5 for the 1 1/16-miles.
The race, for all intents and purposes, was over approaching the top of the stretch when jockey Julien Leparoux not only swept four-wide to confront the early pacesetters, he also looked behind to see if any other horses would present a challenge through the lane.
Only one, the second-place finisher Yawanna Twist, came within three-lengths of the winner and the two colts combined for a $39.60 exacta, a very high price considering they were the top two choices in the betting.
The race set up for the two closers after Wow Wow Wow stormed to the lead from post 10, zipping the early fractions in 22 4/5 and 46 3/5 seconds - extremely fast numbers for a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race. In fact, the three horses that were first, second and third after the first half-mile ended up eighth, sixth and ninth, respectively.
For those fans quick to add Awesome Act to their Derby lists, don't forget the fast early pace helped him immeasurably. In addition, not a single horse in the field, including Awesome Act himself, had ever finished 'in the money' in a graded stakes race. It's also hard to forget the fact that only one Gotham winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby and that was the mighty Secretariat.
On the positive side, it was his first career race on dirt and he seemed to handle it with aplomb. Coming over from Europe and winning off the long layoff was also impressive and his pedigree says 10 furlongs is easily attainable.
His sire Awesome Again won the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic, while his dam, Houdini's Honey, is a full sister to Coup de Genie, France's 1993 champion two-year-old filly. Moreover, Houdini's Honey's half-brother Machiavellian, sired Street Cry - the father of 07 Derby winner, Street Sense.
Is Awesome Act a Kentucky Derby-winning candidate? No question, but he also must improve by leaps and bounds in the Wood Memorial to be taken seriously as a legitimate contender. In addition, the field he'll face in four weeks will be ten times better than the horses he beat last Saturday.
ALPHIE'S BET - THE RIGHT BET IN THE SHAM
If one was lucky enough to watch the replays of Alphie's Bet's previous three races, then cashing in on his $19.00 win price in the Sham Stakes was like taking candy from a baby.
The California-bred colt closed like a bandit in his second start (December 5, 2009) running his final furlong in 11 3/5 seconds. He finished fourth that day, but trainer Alexis Barba thought so much of his performance she not only stretched out the son of Tribal Rule to 1 1/16-miles, but placed him in the $100,000 California Breeders' Challenge.
Dead last approaching the top of the stretch, Alphie's Bet swung out eight- wide through the lane running his final 2 1/2 furlongs in 29 3/5 seconds to get up for second. The winner was the undefeated Caracortado, who came right back to take the Robert B. Lewis in his next start.
Sent off as the 6-5 favorite in his follow-up race, Alphie's Bet took to the turf with a smashing 1 1/4-length last-to-first score after a slow start from the gate. But it wasn't just the victory that solidified his reputation as a solid closer it was the manner in which he overpowered the eight-horse field.
Mired in last place through the stretch and hung out to dry in the 10-path, the bay colt unleashed his powerful strides through the lane to win going away. The final time of 1:38 1/5 for the mile was not very imposing but running his final furlong in 10 4/5 seconds was nothing short of incredible.
Two more signs that showed he was ready to run the race of his life came early in the mornings of February 20 and 28. After four slow workouts between late January and mid-February, Alphie's Bet burst out with a pair of bullet works going six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on the 20th and five furlongs in 1:00 flat eight days later.
Still, the big question heading into the Sham was how he would be able to loop a much stronger field in a race devoid of early speed. The answer? He didn't have to!
After beginning all four of his prior races in either last or next-to-last place, Alphie's Bet was sixth in the early going. In fact, he ran his first half-mile in 48 2/5 - two full seconds (or 10 lengths) faster than his previous two races!
Through the stretch, the Sham was his to lose after passing The Program and a tiring Nextdoorneighbor. He eventually drew clew to win by 2 1/4-lengths over the late closing Setsuko.
What was even more impressive than winning the Grade 3 event was the fact he ran every quarter-mile in under 24 3/5 seconds. His final three furlongs was clocked in 36 seconds flat, including a final 12-second eighth of a mile. Tremendous numbers considering he was much closer to the pace this past Saturday.
Alexis Barba, who also trained Make Music for Me to win the Pasadena Stakes on the turf one race earlier, has not made any definite plans for Alphie's Bet's next start. One race he won't be entered is the Santa Anita Derby since that will be Make Music for Me's final Kentucky Derby prep.
HORSES TO WATCH
Three horses make the list this week, including Trappe Shot, a three-year-old chestnut colt that will be turning heads as the year moves along.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the $850,000 yearling purchase pummeled a field of 10 maidens last month by 10 1/4-lengths, running the six furlongs in a solid 1:09 2/5 seconds.
Since Trappe Shot has only started once in 2010, it's doubtful he'll be on the Kentucky Derby trail but he's one to watch down the road.
The two other horses are three-year-old fillies that ran last weekend at Gulfstream Park.
Wicked Charm finished sixth in her debut on Sunday - a one mile maiden event on the turf. She was 26-1 that day primarily due to her post position. It's not easy to win from the 11 spot at one mile on the weeds due to the short run to the first turn. She also broke slowly from the gate, compounding her position.
Still, she closed strongly, running her final quarter in 23 4/5 to finish sixth, beaten by only six lengths. The fact she was 26-1, along with her sixth-place finish, might help getting decent odds in her next start. And by the way, she's by Ghostzapper and a half-sister to English Channel - the 2007 Eclipse Award-winning male turf horse.
Apple Charlotte, the other three-year-old filly, finished second in Saturday's Herecomesthebride Stakes at nine furlongs on the turf. She had a boatload of trouble checking early in the race and then clipping the heels of Upperline at the top of the stretch. Despite the tough trip, she closed stoutly for second, missing the victory by less than a length.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Dublin; 2) Super Saver; 3) Eskendereya; 4) Lookin At Lucky; 5) Alphie's Bet; 6) Caracortado; 7) Awesome Act; 8) Odysseus; 9) Rule; 10) Stay Put; 11) Connemara; 12) Uptowncharlybrown.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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