This Week in Auto Racing November 7 - 9

Autoracing Betting Lines

11/04/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The battle for the "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship between Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards continues this weekend in the "Valley of the Sun." The tight points battle in Nationwide and Craftsman Truck Series will also play out at Phoenix.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 - Phoenix International Raceway - Phoenix, AZ

Two weeks ago, Carl Edwards sat fourth in the championship standings and trailed leader Jimmie Johnson by 198 points, but after winning back-to-back races - at Atlanta and Texas - Edwards has moved to within 106 points of Johnson in second place.

Edwards became the first driver to score three Cup victories at Texas, marking the fourth consecutive time the fall race winner at Atlanta also won the following week at Texas. Edwards began the streak in 2005, with Tony Stewart doing it in 2006 and Johnson accomplishing it last year.

"When they're back to back like that, there's not much time for things to develop, things to change in the setups," Edwards said. "It's not like they're three months apart. What works last week will generally work in the next week, but not much longer than that."

Now it's on to the one-mile Phoenix International Raceway for the second-to- last race of the season.

An Edwards comeback is within the realm of possibility as he heads to Phoenix with a lot of momentum.

"Phoenix is I think one of the most fun racetracks we go to." he said. "A driver can really make a difference there. It sometimes comes down to calls by crew chiefs and stuff like that. So I really feel like that racetrack will be good."

In 1992, Alan Kulwicki trailed leader Bill Elliott by 85 points with two races remaining, but Kulwicki's fourth-place finish compared to a 31st-place run for Elliott at Phoenix allowed Kulwicki to take a 10-point lead into the season- finale at Atlanta. He finished the year with the same point-margin over Elliott, making it one of the closest championship battles in the sport's history.

Edwards has yet to win at Phoenix but finished fourth twice. He finished 42nd there one year ago.

Meanwhile, Johnson could possibly clinch his record-tying third-consecutive Cup championship one race early, but doing so at Phoenix would be difficult.

Johnson would have to gain 90 points on Edwards and 52 on third-place Greg Biffle for a 196-point lead in order to clinch at Phoenix.

If Johnson heads to Homestead with a 162-point advantage, he would just simply need to start the season-finale to capture the championship.

Johnson will win the title if he finishes seventh or better in the last two races, regardless of any other driver's performance.

"You just never know what's going to happen," Johnson said. "There's still 400 miles at Homestead and 300 at Phoenix, and a lot can happen. Even at 183 points over Carl, I wasn't comfortable. I think it's 161 points you can get in a weekend. If I stuffed it in the fence on the first run and finish 43rd, they're right there. It's a race of 20 or 30 points at that point."

Johnson returns to Phoenix as winner of the last two races there.

One year ago, Johnson grabbed the lead with 24 laps to go and held off Roush Fenway Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Biffle in the final laps at Phoenix to record his fourth-consecutive victory and extend his points lead to 86 over Jeff Gordon. He became the first driver to win four in a row since Gordon did it in the summer of 1998.

In April, Johnson overcame an early-race pit road mistake and stretched his fuel for the final 81 laps to capture his second straight win at Phoenix. He joined Davey Allison, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Kevin Harvick as repeat winners there. No driver has won three races at Phoenix.

"My goal is to outrun those guys, try to lead the most laps, win the race, and gain points on them so that we go to Homestead with as many points as we can," Johnson said. "That's truthfully the goal, and I hope it works that way."

Nationwide Series

Hefty Odor Block 200 - Phoenix International Raceway - Phoenix, AZ

While Carl Edwards is playing catch-up in the Sprint Cup championship, he's also doing the same in the Nationwide Series title race. The defending series champion continues to trim Clint Bowyer's lead with his late-season surge and is within 91 points with two races to go.

Edwards was as far back as 241 points following Bristol in August but has closed the gap significantly after recording seven straight top-five finishes, including two victories at Richmond and Memphis.

"We've got nothing to lose, and we can just go out and be aggressive and take chances," Edwards said in regards to both the Sprint Cup and Nationwide championships. "I've been part of championship efforts, even back racing in dirt cars and stuff, and it's wild. I watched the Formula One race (last Sunday). That was a spectacular drama there. I just hope that we can get this thing close enough to make it that much fun at Homestead in both series. That would be cool."

Edwards has finished no worse than eighth in seven Nationwide starts at Phoenix. He won the fall 2005 race there.

Bowyer, meanwhile, has scored four-straight top-10 finishes at Phoenix, including a victory there in April 2007.

"We've got two races left to get this championship locked up, and I promise you those guys aren't going to go away quietly," Bowyer said. "We need to stay focused and finish the year out strong. We're going to Phoenix and that's one of my favorite race tracks. It's up to us. No one's name will be on that trophy until after Homestead."

Last Saturday, Kyle Busch scored the victory at Texas and tied Sam Ard's 1983 series record for most wins in a season with 10. Busch acknowledged Ard's accomplishments in the series and also pledged to donate $100,000 to assist Ard and his wife, Jo, with their medical and financial situation. Ard, the 1983 and '84 series champion, suffers from Alzheimer's disease, while his wife is losing her eyesight.

Busch is looking to break Ard's record this weekend at Phoenix, where he has won the last two Nationwide races.

Craftsman Truck Series

Lucas Oil 150 - Phoenix International Raceway - Phoenix, AZ

The most competitive points battle among NASCAR's three national touring divisions remains in the Craftsman Truck Series, as Johnny Benson holds just a slim six-point advantage over Ron Hornaday, Jr. after 23 of 25 races.

Hornaday, the defending series champion, narrowed the gap from 31 points to six after winning last Friday at Texas. Hornaday overcame a one-lap deficit and then led the final 40 laps to score a season-sweep at the 1.5-mile track.

Benson was never a factor throughout the race but rallied as he passed Todd Bodine and Colin Braun in the final laps to score a third-place finish and retain the points lead.

"This is unbelievable," Hornaday said. "I just can't seem to shake him. This is what racing is all about."

One year ago, Hornaday trailed Mike Skinner by 57 markers after Texas but came back in the final two races to capture his third series title.

Benson's current lead is the narrowest in the series' 14 years with two races remaining, as the previous closest margin at this stage took place in 2004 when Bobby Hamilton led Dennis Setzer by seven points. Hamilton went on to win the title.

Benson has finished seventh or better in his last five races at Phoenix, including a victory there two years ago, while Hornaday has finished no worse than 13th in 13 starts at the one-mile track. He won there in 1998 and '99.

Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick will pull triple duty at Phoenix this weekend. Busch won the 2007 truck race at Phoenix and returns to defend in the No.51 Toyota for Billy Ballew Motorsports. Harvick, driving his No.2 Chevrolet, will try to capture his third victory at Phoenix. His first two career wins in the series came there in 2002 and '03.

Nationwide regular Brad Keselowski will bring his own No.19 Chevrolet to Phoenix, marking his first series start since June 2007 at Memphis.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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