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05/13/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2010 Triple Crown traveling carnival takes up residence in Baltimore this Saturday for the 135th running of the $1 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The 1 3/16-mile race has attracted an evenly matched field of 12 three-year-olds for the second leg of racing's three-bagger.
Five of the starters are coming in from the Kentucky Derby headed by Run for the Roses winner Super Saver. Also coming back from the two-week break are Derby third-place finisher Paddy O'Prado, defeated favorite and sixth-place finisher Lookin At Lucky, the seventh-place finisher Dublin and Jackson Bend who was 12th.
Super Saver, with Calvin Borel riding, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite after winning the Derby at 8-1. Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 Derby favorite, is the 3-1 second choice and will start from post seven on the immediate inside of Super Saver.
"There's not a really bad post in the Preakness," Lookin At Lucky's trainer Bob Baffert said. "I've won the race. I remember that Real Quiet got the 11. He was training so great and he got the 11, and I was just sick for a couple of days. Then all of a sudden I realized that at the end of the day it's the horse. If you have the horse, it doesn't matter what post you come out of."
Paddy O'Prado has been made the 9-2 third program pick after a major move up in the Derby. He again will start from post 10 with Kent Desormeaux out to redeem himself after his much talked about ride two weeks ago.
"Really, in a 12-horse field, there's not a terrible position to have," noted Paddy's trainer Dale Romans, "I didn't want to be in the one or 12 if we could help it, and anything else we were going to be happy with. Paddy didn't have a problem with the 10-hole in the Derby and I'd like to have him on the inside of First Dude. It gives us a few more options maybe."
Romans has First Dude in the Preakness with the colt breaking from post 11 and 20-1 in the program.
My Derby pick Dublin will break from the outside post with Garrett Gomez picking up the ride after losing the mount on Lookin At Lucky. His seventh- place finish at Churchill Downs has him at 10-1 in the morning-line.
Jackson Bend finished 19-lengths behind Super Saver two weeks ago, but is back for another try. He will be ridden by Mike Smith from post six and is 12-1 in the program.
The two 30-1 longshots are Northern Giant and Yawanna Twist, posts four and five respectively. Northern Giant was ninth in the Arkansas Derby and will be ridden by Terry Thompson who was on Dublin in the Derby. Yawanna Twist was second in the Illinois Derby and again will be handled by Edgar Prado.
At 20-1, in addition to First Dude, are Aikenite and Pleasant Prince. Aikenite is trained by Pletcher and is coming off a second-place finish in the Derby Trial. His inside post position should not be a factor,
"I suppose one wouldn't have been my first choice for Aikenite," Pletcher said, "but I really don't think the post positions are hugely important in this race. Eight was very good. I'm very happy with that."
Former jockey Wesley Ward sends out Pleasant Prince who was third in the Derby Trial. Eclipse Award winner Julien Leparoux has the mount from post three.
"I'm happy. I guess if I'd have been choosing one, Id have chosen four, five or seven," said owner Ken Ramsey. "But I'm happy with three. There's not much you can do about it, just take what you get. It's a lot different from the Derby. You've got almost half the number of horses, 12 compared to 20."
Trainer Derek Ryan sends out Schoolyard Dreams for a try at a second straight in-the-money Preakness finish. Last year Musket Man was third in both the Preakness and Kentucky Derby. Schoolyard Dreams is 15-1 in the program and will start from post two with Eibar Coa riding.
"I'd rather be down there than stuck way out on the outside," Ryan noted, "so we've got no complaints. He likes to be pretty close to the pace."
The only gelding in the field is Caracortado trained by Mike Machowsky. Paul Atkinson comes in from California to ride from the nine hole. Undefeated as a two-year-old, Caracortado is 10-1 in the morning-line.
"I'm thinking I might put my horse on the lead or in the race early," said Machowsky, "and I think the only other horse that has any sort of speed inside of me is Jackson Bend. We drew well. It's a solid field. I was talking to somebody this morning thinking that it's one of the best Preakness fields in a while as far as anybody can win it. I think all 12 horses have a shot."
Machowsky is absolutely correct. Any of the 12 has a chance to win the Preakness this year. That is why I will not be singling any of the entrants.
I liked Dublin in the Derby and will use him in a four horse exacta box. Along with Dublin I'm including Super Saver, Aikenite and Paddy O'Prado.
<< Slovakia's Skrtel optimistic about World Cup
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Liverpool's Slovakia defender Martin
Skrtel is optimistic of his chances of being fit for the start of the World
Cup.
Skrtel has been sidelined since February with a broken metatarsal but was
<< Samaras committed to Celtic
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celtic striker Georgios Samaras has
dismissed reports of a summer move to Palermo.
The Italian side have recently admitted their interest in the Greece striker,
who found starting opportunities at
<< Hodgson happy with Cottagers
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Hodgson insists he is happy at Fulham
and is not thinking about leaving Craven Cottage despite a disappointing end
to their season.
The Cottagers lost their first ever European final 2-1 in ex
<< England's Ferdinand hopes to stay healthy at Cup
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rio Ferdinand is keeping his fingers
crossed that his injury problems are behind him as he prepares to captain
England at the World Cup.
Ferdinand started just 12 Premier League games for Manc
Line of Scrimmage: Cushing saga leaves too much unsaid >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brian Cushing finally met the media on
Thursday, one day after the Houston Texans linebacker was permitted to keep his
AP Defensive Rookie of the Year honor following a much-publicized re-vote.
Cushing, wh
Van Nistelrooy ends Dutch career >>
Amsterdam, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Netherlands striker Ruud van
Nistelrooy has admitted his international career is over following his World
Cup snub.
The 33-year-old Hamburg striker was hoping his move to the Bundesliga
Neuer starts in Germany's win over Malta >>
Aachen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manuel Neuer started at goalie for Germany
in Thursday's friendly against Malta, but the other goalies on the provisional
World Cup roster were not available.
Loew lost No. 1 goalie Rene Adler to a broken
NL West: D'Backs getting no action from Jackson >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Diamondbacks invested a lot of hope and plenty of dough
on Edwin Jackson this offseason, but all he's been able to do is lead his new
ballclub to just one win in eight starts.
Arizona (14-21) acquired Jackson along wi
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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