QB Drama Surrounds Colts-Bears Matchup

Football Betting Lines

09/05/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Quarterback concerns have been nothing new for the Chicago Bears in recent years. For the first time in nearly a decade, the Indianapolis Colts may have some worries of their own at the all-important position.

Both teams will find out where they stand at quarterback when the Colts and Bears play the first-ever regular-season game at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday night.

Peyton Manning has opened every Indianapolis game under center since the two- time NFL MVP was selected by the organization with the No. 1 overall choice of the 1998 draft. That streak of 174 consecutive contests (including 14 playoff games) will be extended on Sunday, although it appeared at one time to be in jeopardy after Manning underwent surgery in mid-July to remove an inflamed bursa sac in his left knee.

The star signal-caller resumed practicing on August 26 but did not play at all during the preseason, which opens up the possibility that Manning could be a bit rusty or not completely in sync with his outstanding corps of receivers.

While there may be a bit of an unknown factor with Manning on Sunday, Chicago's quarterback situation is a far greater mystery heading into its season opener. Kyle Orton emerged as the winner of a preseason derby with former first-round pick Rex Grossman, but it's still anybody's guess as to whether the fourth-year pro will be able to solidify a spot that's been a lingering problem during the first four years of head coach Lovie Smith's tenure.

Orton did start the Bears' final three games of 2007 and helped the team to a pair of December victories that helped take some of the sting out of a thoroughly disappointing 7-9 campaign. That win total was six less than the previous season, when Chicago rode a dominating defense and difference-making special-teams play all the way to an NFC title.

The Bears wound up losing that year's Super Bowl to the Colts, who put together another excellent regular season in 2007 but couldn't match the previous year's playoff success.

Indianapolis completed last year's 16-game schedule with a gaudy 13-3 mark, the fifth straight season the franchise won at least 12 games, but was ousted by San Diego during the AFC Divisional Playoffs. The Colts now must answer the question as to whether that defeat was simply the product of an off day, or if it's a foreshadowing of a slow decline for one of the NFL's premier teams of the decade.

The Colts and Bears will be facing off for the first time since that Super Bowl showdown in January of 2007.

SERIES HISTORY

The Colts hold a 22-17 lead in their all-time regular season series with the Bears, including a 41-10 rout at Soldier Field when the teams last met, in Week 11 of the 2004 season. Prior to that victory, Indy had never defeated Chicago since the former franchise left Baltimore following the 1983 season. The Bears had won the previous four head-to-head matchups, defeating Indy at Soldier Field in 1985 and 2000, and in the RCA Dome in 1988 and 1991.

The most memorable all-time matchup between the franchises occurred in Super Bowl XLI from Miami, won by the Colts, 29-17, in a downpour.

Colts head coach Tony Dungy is 9-5 in his career against the Bears, including 7-5 while with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 1996 through 2001. Smith, who served as linebackers coach on Dungy's staff with the Bucs from 1996 through 2000, is 0-2 against both his former mentor and Indianapolis.

WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL

In an effort to keep Manning and Indianapolis' potent offense off the field, as well as helping to compensate for their own limitations in the passing game, expect the Bears to employ a ball-control game plan centered around running backs Matt Forte and former Detroit Lion Kevin Jones (581 rushing yards, 8 TD, 33 receptions in '07) on Sunday. Forte, Chicago's second-round selection in April's draft figures to receive the lion's share of the work with the brittle Jones coming off offseason knee surgery. The pair will be running behind an offensive line that doesn't have much other than six-time Pro Bowl center Olin Kreutz, and whose mediocre performance last season played a part in the team's paltry output of 83.1 rushing yards per game (30th overall).

The Colts were one of the NFL's worst defenses against the run during their championship season of 2006, but that poor showing can partly be attributed to having dynamic strong safety Bob Sanders out of the lineup for most of the year. With a healthy Sanders (96 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) around last season, Indianapolis ranked a respectable 15th in rushing defense (106.9 ypg), and the diminutive All-Pro was named the league's Defensive Player of the Year. The insertion of then-rookie tackle Ed Johnson (41 tackles, 1 sack) into the starting lineup provided an upgrade as well, as did an injury-free season out of veteran middle linebacker Gary Brackett (116 tackles, 4 INT, 0.5 sacks). The Colts will be without projected strongside linebacker Tyjuan Hagler (54 tackles, 1 sack) on Sunday due to injury, with second-year pro Clint Session (26 tackles, 2 INT) slated to take over.

Orton's (478 passing yards, 3 INT, 2 INT) steadiness and sound decision-making earned him the nod over the mistake-prone Grossman (1411 passing yards, 4 TD, 7 INT) for the opener, but the former Purdue star isn't exactly walking into a favorable situation. Chicago's line often struggled in pass protection last year and won't have 2008 first-round pick Chris Williams ready to play left tackle until at least October because of recent back surgery. Orton's also working with a rag-tag group of receivers in which the top three wideouts to emerge out of the preseason were ex-Redskins washout Brandon Lloyd (2 receptions), return-man extraordinaire and converted cornerback Devin Hester (20 receptions, 2 TD) and one-time Arena Leaguer Rashied Davis (17 receptions). The Bears do have skill at the tight end position with solid veteran Desmond Clark (44 receptions, 4 TD) and talented sophomore Greg Olsen (39 receptions, 2 TD).

Chicago's moribund aerial attack will be facing another potential obstacle in an Indianapolis defense that ranked second in the NFL versus the pass (172.8 ypg) and yielded just 16 throwing touchdowns a year ago. Sanders and third- year standout Antoine Bethea (65 tackles, 4 INT) are among the league's best playmaking safety tandems, while cornerbacks Marlin Jackson (88 tackles, 1 INT) and Kelvin Hayden (83 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PD) are big and physical defenders ideally suited for Dungy's Cover-2 scheme. The Colts also possess a disruptive pass rusher in three-time Pro Bowl end Dwight Freeney (21 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who appears fully recovered from a Lisfranc fracture that cut short his 2007 campaign and is sure to draw double teams from the Bears' patchwork left side of the line. That should benefit counterpart Robert Mathis (32 tackles, 7 sacks), an accomplished rusher in his own right.

WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL

The fact that the Colts kept just two quarterbacks on the active roster appears to be a strong indication that Manning (4040 passing yards, 31 TD, 14 INT) is fully ready to assume his customary role as triggerman of an offense that finished third overall in scoring (28.1 ppg) and sixth in passing yards (252.1 ypg) in 2007. Those already-strong numbers could possibly have been even better had Manning's longtime favorite target, Marvin Harrison (20 receptions, 1 TD). not been limited to just five games due to a bum knee. The 36- ear-old showed no lingering effects from the injury during the preseason and seems to ready to rejoin All-Pro wideout Reggie Wayne (104 receptions, 1510 yards, 10 TD) and field-stretching tight end Dallas Clark (58 receptions, 11 TD) to give Manning a dangerous trio of pass-catchers once again. Harrison's absence did allow 2007 first-round choice Anthony Gonzalez (37 receptions, 3 TD) to receive valuable playing time, and the Ohio State product emerged as a solid option out of the slot.

While Indy seems unconcerned with Manning's health status, the situation on the offensive line bears watching early on. Perennial All-Pro center Jeff Saturday and regular left guard Ryan Lilja both have knee injuries that could sideline both until midseason, leaving those key positions in the untested hands of rookie Steve Justice and special teamer Dan Federkeil. Those losses may impact the effectiveness of workhorse running back Joseph Addai (1072 rushing yards, 41 receptions, 15 total TD), who's also a key component of the Colts' multi-faceted passing game. To help keep Addai fresh, the team brought back capable veteran Dominic Rhodes (302 rushing yards, 1 TD, 11 receptions), a Colt from 2001-06 who spent last season with the Raiders.

After fielding an elite defense during their stellar 2006 season, the Bears endured a precipitous fall from grace last year as injuries ravaged the once- fearsome unit. The biggest losses were suffered in the secondary, where stalwart cornerback Nathan Vasher (8 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack) missed 12 games with a groin strain and injury-prone free safety Mike Brown (4 tackles, 1 INT) tore his ACL in the season-opener. The depleted backfield led to Chicago's unwanted No. 27 ranking in pass defense (231.8 ypg), a number the team expects will improve with the healthy return of its core players. The Bears did display a good pass rush throughout the year, compiling a solid total of 41 sacks behind a deep and skilled line anchored by star tackle Tommie Harris (36 tackles, 8 sacks). Ends Adewale Ogunleye (58 tackles, 9 sacks, 6 forced fumbles) and Mark Anderson (31 tackles, 5 sacks) have each produced double- digit season sack totals during the course of their careers.

Chicago's downfall in pass defense during 2007 was much easier to explain than its subpar showing against the run. The Bears surrendered 122.9 yards per game (24th overall) on the ground last season, an average of nearly 25 more than the previous year, despite possessing a trio of multiple Pro Bowl participants in Harris and linebackers Brian Urlacher (123 tackles, 5 sacks, 5 INT) and Lance Briggs (103 tackles, 2 sacks). Harris is slated to start on Sunday despite missing some preseason time with a sore knee, but he may be spelled often by versatile reserve Israel Idonije (28 tackles) and promising rookie Marcus Harrison.

FANTASY FOCUS

With the exception of leagues that use individual defensive players, virtually all the usable fantasy performers rest on the Indianapolis side. Manning's lack of work during the preseason shouldn't deter his owners one bit from using the point-producing quarterback on Sunday, and that makes Wayne and Clark must-plays as well. Harrison's age and last year's injury make him less of a sure bet at wide receiver, especially since he'll almost certainly be rested late if the game turns one-sided. Addai may not reach the 100-yard mark against a Chicago defense that's too talented not to be better versus the run this season, but the standout young back's nose for the end zone makes him a lock to start. The Bears' most attractive fantasy player might be Hester, and that's definitely true if your league rewards points for return yardage. He might be Chicago's best chance of scoring a touchdown in this one. Stay away from Orton and any Bears receiver other than Hester, but those who grabbed Forte could potentially get a nice early return from the rookie, who figures to receive a lot of carries this week. Chicago's litany of question marks on offense bodes well for owners of Indianapolis' stop unit.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Last year's early playoff exit and the injuries that a number of key veteran players incurred during the offseason have led to speculation that the Colts' reign of excellence is in its final stages. That may turn out to be true, but it won't be evident in the opener. Indianapolis' defense shouldn't have much of a problem shutting down a Chicago team that may have the weakest quarterback-receiver tandem in the league, not to mention holes to fill along the front wall. That won't provide any relief for a Bears defense that isn't quite good enough to hold Manning and the Colts' array of weapons at bay for four full quarters. If Indianapolis gets up big early on and remembers to keep the football out of the hands of Hester, who had a memorable touchdown return of the opening kickoff against the Colts in the Super Bowl a couple of seasons back, this contest will likely be no contest if the Bears are forced to abandon the running game in an attempt to catch up.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 24, Bears 6