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07/02/2009 - Sylvania, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Morgan Pressel, Laura Diaz and Song-Hee Kim each fired rounds of seven-under 64 on Thursday to share the opening-round lead of the Jamie Farr Owens Corning Classic.
Suzann Pettersen and Michelle Wie are knotted in fourth place at six-under 65 at Highland Meadows Golf Club.
Tournament officials had to be pleased to see so many familiar faces so high up on the leaderboard, considering they lost one of the biggest stars before she teed off.
Paula Creamer, last year's winner, withdrew before her round on Thursday. She injured her left thumb last week and received treatment on the injury since she withdrew in the middle of last week's Wegmans LPGA.
It was at that event less than a week ago where Pressel began the final round in second place, but a 78 on Sunday left her 11 shots behind champion Jiyai Shin.
"You just take what happened last week, especially on that back nine in terms of the weather, and move on and take what's there this week," said Pressel, the 2007 Kraft Nabisco Champion.
Pressel started on the 10th tee Thursday and collected her first birdie when she poured in a 15-footer at the 13th. She hit a spectacular seven-iron approach to tap-in range for another birdie at 16, then closed her opening nine with a five-foot birdie putt at the par-five 18th.
On her second nine, Pressel waited until the fourth hole for her first birdie. She hit an eight-iron to 10 feet and got to four-under par for the championship.
That birdie kicked off a great run for Pressel. She sank another 10-foot birdie putt at five, tapped in a short birdie effort at six and polished off her fourth birdie in a row with a 10-footer at the par-five seventh hole.
"I hit every fairway and hit every green, and gave myself birdie opportunities on every hole. You can't ask for much more than that," said Pressel. "I made a couple good 10-15 footers, and just kept giving myself chances. I just said, just keep hitting it close, and it will go in eventually."
Diaz first broke into red figures with a 25-foot birdie putt at the fourth. She lost that stroke with a bogey at the fifth after an errant drive, but got back to one-under with a 12-footer for birdie at eight.
Diaz caught fire on the back side. She kicked in a short one at 10 and rolled in a nine-foot birdie putt at the 13th. Diaz birdied her next two to get minus-five.
At the par-five 17th, Diaz laid up with her second shot and had a 56-degree wedge for her third. She holed out the chip from 38 yards and that put her into a tie for first.
"I put myself at a really good angle to the pin, and I had the whole green to work with, with nothing in my line of sight," said Diaz of her eagle at 17. "I put a new 56 in this week, just yesterday, and it checked up a little bit, then just dribbled into the hole."
Kim bogeyed the first hole, but four straight birdies from No. 4 got her to three-under par. Three more consecutive birdies after the turn pushed Kim to six-under, but a bogey at 16 dropped her two off the lead.
Kim, who has five top 10s this season, birdied her last two for her piece of the lead.
"After missing the cut last week I was a little nervous with my game, with my swing and everything," admitted Kim through a translator. "I am glad I played well today."
Shin continued her fine form with a five-under 66 on Thursday. She is tied for sixth place with Cristie Kerr, Inbee Park, Lindsey Wright, Jee Young Lee and Minea Blomqvist.
World No. 1 Lorena Ochoa, who has never won this championship, shot a four- under 67 and is part of a large group tied for 12th place.
<< Bees delay Astros/Padres game
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the top of the ninth inning of a game
between the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres, a swarm of bees took over
part of left field and caused the game to go into a delay.
With Miguel Tejada at the plate w
<< Panthers sign Leopold, Wilson
Sunrise, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers bolstered their defensive
corps Thursday by signing both Jordan Leopold and Clay Wilson.
Leopold, who signed a one-year contract, was acquired on the NHL Draft's
second day from Calg
<< RSL, S.J. to battle in Friday fixture
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Earthquakes travel to take on Real
Salt Lake in Major League Soccer action on Friday night as the two Western
Conference rivals battle for position.
Both team are in the bottom half of the con
<< Kim's record 62 leads AT&T National
Bethesda, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Anthony Kim set the course
record with an eight-under 62 at Congressional, taking the first-round lead
Thursday at the AT&T National.
Tiger Woods, the tournament host, shot a six-
Astros swarm Padres; bees delay game >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wandy Rodriguez threw seven strong innings to
help the Houston Astros take a 7-2 win over the San Diego Padres in an unusual
finale of a four-game set.
Rodriguez (7-6) gave up just one run on seven hits w
Holy Cross tabs Kearney to replace Willard >>
Worcester, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Holy Cross named Sean Kearney its new head
men's basketball coach on Thursday.
Kearney, who becomes the 15th head coach in the history of the program,
replaces Ralph Willard who resigned last mo
Angels come to terms with first-round pick >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim came to terms
on a minor league contract with outfielder Michael Trout, the 25th overall
pick in the 2009 First-Year Player Draft.
Trout, who played his high school ball
Report: Artest joining Lakers >>
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Free agent forward Ron Artest is
reportedly leaving the Houston Rockets to join the Los Angeles Lakers and will
provide the team with more offensive firepower next season, as he'll join Kobe
Bryant
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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