Cellar-dwellers face off again in Bucs-Nats clash

Baseball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh lefty Paul Maholm can make it two straight wins for the Pirates and end his own four-decision skid tonight, when the Washington Nationals return to PNC Park for the middle test of a three-game weekend series.

The Pirates at least stalled a recent slide of five losses in six games in Friday's opener, when Garrett Jones hit two doubles and drove in three runs in an 8-5 win.

Ryan Doumit homered among three hits for the Pirates. Pedro Alvarez drove in two runs, while Jose Tabata and Ronny Cedeno each had two hits.

Bucs starter Zach Duke (7-12) lasted five-plus innings, giving up four runs, five hits and three walks while fanning five for the win.

Danny Espinosa hit his first career home run for the Nationals, who have lost three straight. Adam Dunn and Justin Maxwell each drove in a run in defeat.

Livan Hernandez (9-10) was pounded for eight runs on eight hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings to take the loss for Washington.

Maholm, the eighth overall pick in the 2003 draft, picked up his seventh win of the season on Aug. 3 after a six-inning effort in a 7-6 defeat of Cincinnati. He's 0-4 in five starts since, however, allowing 25 runs on 40 hits in 25 innings while his earned run average has climbed from 4.59 to 5.18.

He retired just 10 batters in his most recent outing, allowing nine hits and eight runs against the Chicago Cubs in a 14-2 embarrassment at Wrigley Field on Monday.

The Mississippi native has faced the Nationals six times in 154 big-league starts but has yet to record a win against them, losing three decisions while posting a 5.30 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Maholm is 5-8 in 14 home starts in 2010.

Fellow lefty John Lannan seeks his first career defeat of the Pirates for Washington as well this evening.

The Long Beach, NY native is 0-3 in five previous outings against Pittsburgh, including a no-decision in Washington's 7-5 home win on June 9, when he was tagged for 10 hits and five runs in 4 2/3 innings.

Lannan has gone 4-3 in eight starts since, however, to even his season record at 6-6. He beat the St. Louis Cardinals, 4-2, Sunday at Nationals Park after allowing one run on eight hits over 7 2/3 innings.

He is 4-3 in 10 road starts this season.

Washington swept a three-game set from the Pirates back in June and had won five in a row in this overall series prior to Friday's setback.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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