Can Texans End Steelers' Opening-Day Streak?

Football Betting Lines

09/05/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One thing that didn't change last year in Pittsburgh's transition at head coach from Bill Cowher to Mike Tomlin was its ability to win on opening weekend. The Steelers will try to win their first game of the season for a sixth straight year this weekend, when they open the 2008 season against the Houston Texans at Heinz Field.

The Steelers' five straight victories in openers is the longest current streak in the NFL. Pittsburgh has won 22 of its 38 games on Kickoff Weekend since 1970, including last year's 34-7 win over Cleveland to begin the season, the first for Tomlin as the club's head coach.

It wasn't all roses for Tomlin last season though. After a 7-2 start, the Steelers went on to drop four of their final seven games before a first-round exit in the playoffs. A season-ending leg injury to running back Willie Parker late in the regular season may have been the franchise's ultimate undoing.

Still, Pittsburgh did hold on to win the AFC North for the third time since 2002 and continued to dominate at home, going 7-1 in 2007 to push its mark at Heinz Field to 25-7 over the past four seasons.

In an effort to keep Parker healthy, the club grabbed running back Rashard Mendenhall in the first round of the 2008 draft while answering quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's pleas of getting him bigger targets with the second-round selection of 6-foot-4 wide receiver Limas Sweed.

Add in a defense that was one of the best in the league a year ago, and the Steelers seemed poised for a run at the top of the standings yet again.

However, if the club is to extend its season-opening streak, it will have to do so against the rising Texans.

Though Houston has yet to make the playoffs in its six years as an NFL franchise, the Texans are coming off an 8-8 finish that was the best in club history.

The Texans won three of their final four games to post that mark and are led by a young nucleus of quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson on offense, as well as lineman Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye and linebacker DeMeco Ryans on defense.

Not to be content, Houston also went out this offseason and got younger at the running back spot, picking Steve Slaton in the third round of the draft. Running back Chris Taylor, who missed all of 2007 due to knee injury, is also in the fold for this year.

Houston has won three of its six prior season openers, and begins a season on the road for the third time in club history. The Texans are 1-1 when opening a campaign as the visitor, last winning in 2003 in Miami.

The club has also split its previous two openers under third-year head coach Gary Kubiak.

SERIES HISTORY

The Texans and Steelers have split two all-time meetings, with Houston earning a 24-6 road upset when the clubs first met, in 2002, and Pittsburgh returning the favor with a 27-7 rout at Reliant Stadium in 2005. The Steelers last defeated a Houston-based NFL franchise at home in 1996, when they beat the Oilers at Three Rivers Stadium.

Kubiak and Tomlin will be meeting one another, as well as their counterpart's respective team, for the first time as head coaches.

WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL

Schaub (2,241 yards, 9 TDs, 9 INTs) had a rough go of it last year, the first of a six-year deal he signed with Houston. He missed five starts and exited three others early due to injury, and also had offseason shoulder surgery. A healthy season out of Schaub will help the Texans take a step forward. Schaub wasn't the only big-name Texan to battle injury last year, as Johnson (60 receptions), the club's star wideout, missed seven games due to a knee ailment but still managed to post 851 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Kevin Walter (800 yards, 4 TDs) set career-highs across the board last year and begins the year as Houston's No. 2 receiver. Owen Daniels (768 yards, 3 TDs) provides an offensive target at tight end. Houston appears as if it is going to run a three-headed monster at running back with Ahman Green (260 rushing yards, 2 TD), Taylor and Slaton. Green played in just six games last season due to a knee injury and was slowed in camp by a groin ailment. Sunday's game will also feature the debut of athletic first-round pick Duane Brown at left tackle.

The Steelers bring to the table a solid linebacking group, led by outside LB James Harrison (98 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1 INT) and James Farrior (94 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 1 INT), who patrols the inside. That duo is the heart of Pittsburgh's 3-4 scheme, and Harrison is coming off a Pro Bowl campaign. Linebacker LaMarr Woodley, a 2007 second-round pick, is also penciled in as a starter for the first time in his career. A solid performance by that group should ease the burden the front three needs to carry, as left end Aaron Smith (30 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is coming off a torn biceps that cost him the final month of last season, while nose tackle Casey Hampton endured a tough camp. The health of safety Troy Polamalu (58 tackles) is a concern, as he missed five games last year and battled a hamstring problem in the preseason. However, he is expected to be active for Week 1. Meanwhile, free safety Ryan Clark is returning from a ruptured spleen that caused him to miss the final 11 games of last year. Deshea Townsend (52 tackles, 2 INT) and Ike Taylor (80 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) are back at the corner slots, though they were part of a group that intercepted a league-low-tying 11 passes a year ago.

WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL

Roethlisberger is coming off the best season of his career, statistically speaking. In his fourth NFL season, he threw for 3,154 yards and a career-high 32 touchdowns while getting picked off 11 times. His TD total, as well as his 104.1 passer rating, both set new Steeler single-season records. There is little doubt that Parker's leg injury last year was a back-breaker, so the club took steps to lower his carries. While Parker (1316 rushing yards, 2 TD, 23 receptions) didn't score much last year, he was leading the NFL in rushing before his injury. The club drafted Mendenhall in the hopes that he can handle the between-tackle runs. Pittsburgh is deep at the wideout spot, with Hines Ward (71 receptions, 7 TD), Santonio Holmes (52 receptions, 8 TD), Nate Washington (29 receptions, 5 TD) and Sweed giving Roethlisberger ample targets. Add in tight end Heath Miller (47 receptions, 7 TD) and the Steelers receiving group will give Houston's secondary all it can handle. Pittsburgh's offensive line will also be put to the test, especially with Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca jumping to the Jets this offseason.

The Texans bring speed and youth to their defensive front, led by Williams, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2006 draft. Williams (59 tackles) ranked third in the NFL in sacks last year, with his 14 setting a franchise record. As if that wasn't scary enough, 21-year-old Amobi Okoye (32 tackles, 5.5 sacks) now has a full year of experience under his belt. Star middle linebacker Ryans (127 tackles, 2 sacks, INT) is coming off his first Pro Bowl campaign and is helped by speedy outside LB Morlon Greenwood (119 tackles). Houston's secondary is a man short with corner Dunta Robinson (35 tackles, 2 INT) not expected back from a torn ACL until mid-October. That will force Jacques Reeves into a starting role alongside Fred Bennett (62 tackles, 3 INT). Will Demps (52 tackles) and C.C. Brown (84 tackles, INT) start at safety to round out Houston's secondary that ranked 25th in pass defense last year.

FANTASY FOCUS

Though it will be tough to duplicate his numbers from a year ago, Roethlisberger should have an outstanding game versus the Texans, assuming his offensive line can keep him upright. This week will also give Parker owners a glimpse as to how he will be used this year, as well as a boost to Rogaine stock if Mendenhall gets all the carries inside the five. With Roethlisberger set to have a solid game, Ward, Holmes and Miller are good starts as well. Pittsburgh's veteran defense should also be able to force some mistakes by the young Houston offense, meaning some turnover points could be in the cards.

Owners will be happy to see a healthy Johnson on the field, as the explosive wideout is a must-start. As long as he is on the field, Schaub's value goes up as well. Houston's running game will offer little in this test until one back emerges as the go-to player. That epiphany won't come in Week 1 against a tough Steelers defense. Even with the likes of Williams, Okoye and Ryans, the Houston defense as a whole serves little value this week.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Fans of the future of the NFL will enjoy this weekend's test. While the Steelers' grip on AFC success may be starting to loosen a bit, the Texans are definitely a team on the rise. If this game was taking place say, next year or 2010, Houston would likely be a great pick. However, it is still 2008, the Steelers still have an excellent offensive corps and a more-than-capable defense. Houston, meanwhile, needs to prove it can stay healthy to speed up the learning curve. One year too soon for the Texans this weekend.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Steelers 28, Texans 17

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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