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07/14/2010 - St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - HOLE ONE - Par 4 - 376 yards: On the opening day of the Millennium Open this seemingly benign hole was rated the second most difficult on the course. A total of 36 players scored bogey or double-bogey against 15 birdies. The Swilcan Burn that curls down the right side of the fairway and across the face of the green is the cause of the problems. Unless the wind blows strongly from the west the approach is seldom more than a wedge and players should avoid the temptation to attack any pin position close to the front.
HOLE TWO - Par 4 - 453 yards: A new tee added 40 yards to this hole for the 2005 Open and brought Cheape's bunker on the left back into play at just over 300 yards. Championship pin positions are often found on the high left side of the green beyond a sharp ridge that can throw the ball left into a deep bunker or right towards the lower level of the green.
HOLE THREE - Par 4 - 397 yards: The ideal tee shot line hugs the right side, but the edge of the fairway is littered with pot bunkers and small gorse bushes. Crescent-shaped Cartgate bunker eats into the left side of the green and the putting surface falls away from a high left side.
HOLE FOUR - Par 4 - 480 yards: There are two choices from the tee: straight at the flag down a narrow strip of fairway hemmed in by dunes and gorse, or over the mounds on the left where the fairway opens out to merge with the 15th hole. But the further left the tee shot the more difficult the approach with a bunker on the left and the green sloping away to the right.
HOLE FIVE - Par 5 - 568 yards: The easiest hole on the course during most championships at St Andrews, reachable in two for today's professionals if the tee shot avoids the clutch of seven bunkers on the right between 270 and 320 yards. Fairway contours and the prevailing westerly wind gather the ball towards these traps and the aiming point is well to the left. The sheer size of the green - 92 yards from front to back - can frustrate many birdie chances.
HOLE SIX - Par 4 - 412 yards: Bunkers left and right are completely hidden from the tee as the hole drops to a lower level beyond a long, gorse-covered ridge. Shorter hitters will have to tiptoe their way through this minefield, but the power players will likely carry the ball beyond danger - unless the wind is strong out of the north-west. A ridge and hollow across the front of the green will do little to prevent a host of birdies.
HOLE SEVEN - Par 4 - 371 yards: The start of the St Andrews' loop of short par fours and two par threes where many winning scores have been forged. Most players will lay up into a flat area beyond a large mound where the seventh and 11th holes cross. From there it is just a short pitch over the vast expanse of Shell bunker to a green that runs downhill sharply from left to right.
HOLE EIGHT - Par 3 - 175 yards: If the wind swings round to the east, as it often does in summer, a simple short-iron shot can become as much as a five- iron. There are subtle contours in the largely flat green and the tough pin position is just behind the vertically-faced bunker on the left side.
HOLE NINE - Par 4 - 352 yards: Well within reach for a large percentage of players, especially with the prevailing westerly wind at their backs, the surprise is that this hole gives up far fewer birdies than it should. Gorse bushes creep close to the left edge of the green, but there is a wide expanse of open fairway between that and two bunkers on the right.
HOLE TEN - Par 4 - 380 yards: Although stretched by nearly 40 yards for the Millennium Open the green is still in reach for the longest hitters. Most players will be happy to avoid the two small bunkers on the right. Leaving a full wedge or sand-wedge approach can give a greater degree of control than chipping or putting from the fringe as the green falls away beyond a raised front.
HOLE ELEVEN - Par 3 - 174 yards: This tee shot can be anything from a nine- iron to a three-iron depending on the strength and direction of the wind. The green slopes dramatically from back to front and left to right. Come up short and the ball will run way back off the green. Too long and it drops 15 feet into a gully. Strath bunker at the front is small. Hill bunker to the left, meanwhile, is long and very deep.
HOLE TWELVE - Par 4 - 348 yards: A short but deceptively tricky par four where the bunkers that threaten the tee shot are all hidden from view. The top level of the two-tier green is only 12 paces deep and requires supreme accuracy with the approach. Many players will try to eliminate that shot by attempting to drive the green.
HOLE THIRTEEN - Par 4 465 yards: A new tee introduced for the 2005 Open brought the Coffins bunkers back into play at 280-310 yards on the left. The approach is over raised broken ground to a huge double green shared with the fifth hole. A shallow hollow filled with clinging rough on the left and a deep bunker on the right guard the entrance to the green at a hole that is consistently strong and often rates as the second most difficult on the course.
HOLE FOURTEEN - Par 5 - 618 yards: An out-of-bounds wall on the right and the group of four Beardies bunkers on the left leave a clearly defined target area off the tee. Then the direct route to the green must carry the huge expanse of Hell bunker 80 yards short. If the wind blows strongly from the east this is a genuine three-shot par five. The face of the green rises steeply before dropping away back and left.
HOLE FIFTEEN - Par 4 - 456 yards: There is little threat from Sutherland bunker in the middle of the fairway unless the wind blows strongly from the east. Beyond the bunker the fairway is pinched from both sides by low dunes and the trio of Rob's bunkers, some 80 yards short of the green, may catch downwind tee shots from the real power players. The wide entrance to the green is mounded on both sides, with sand on the left.
HOLE SIXTEEN - Par 4 - 423 yards: The fence that marks the route of the old railway into St Andrews runs all the way down the right from tee to green and there is only a narrow strip of fairway between the fence and a cluster of three bunkers known as the Principal's Nose. The percentage option is to lay up left of the bunkers, leaving a short-iron to a green that has a sharp ridge curving across the front. The green is bunkered left and behind.
HOLE SEVENTEEN - Par 4 - 455 yards: An extra 40 yards have been added to the hole that already has a reputation as the toughest par-four in championship golf. This means a minimum carry of 260 yards over the replica railway sheds to reach the ideal position on the right edge of the fairway. The green angles away from the player from front right to back left behind the vertically-faced Road bunker. An over-hit second shot will fall off the back of the green on to the road.
HOLE EIGHTEEN - Par 4 - 357 yards: There will be many players in the field capable of driving this green in the right conditions, but for anything that comes up short the choice of second shot can be vital, particularly when the pin is set just beyond the deep Valley of Sin at the front of the green. The traditional links shot, the low pitch and run, has a greater chance of success than a high-flying, fast-spinning wedge that can easily screw back off the green.
Course descriptions provided by www.opengolf.com.
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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.
Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.
Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.
So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.
In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.
For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.
The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.
The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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