Brewers' Bush takes on Pirates at Miller Park

Baseball Betting Lines

08/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh native Dave Bush faces his hometown team for the 16th time today, when the Milwaukee Brewers close out a three-game weekend set with the visiting Pirates at Miller Park.

A 30-year-old product of Wake Forest, Bush is 5-5 in his previous encounters with the Pirates, including an 11-9 loss at Pittsburgh on July 20 in which he was touched for nine hits and 10 runs across just four innings.

In 84 career innings against them, he's allowed 83 hits and 51 runs.

Bush has gone 2-3 with a no-decision in six subsequent starts, including a 5-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last outing on Aug. 24.

He is 3-6 in Milwaukee this season with a 4.84 earned run average.

Pittsburgh counters with righty Charlie Morton, who returns to the majors for the first time since late May.

The 26-year-old was a third-round draft choice of the Atlanta Braves in 2002 and reached the majors in 2008. He won four games in 16 appearances with Atlanta that season before coming to the Pirates in a trade and going 5-9 in 18 starts in 2009.

Morton began this season with Pittsburgh and won just once in 10 starts before heading to Triple-A Indianapolis with a 9.35 ERA in 43 1/3 innings.

The recall came after right-handed starter Ross Ohlendorf was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a damaged muscle behind his shoulder. He was removed after eight pitches of Monday's start against St. Louis.

Morton is winless in six road starts this season and is 0-3 in three career meetings with Milwaukee, including an 8-1 loss to the Brewers in Pittsburgh on April 20.

On Saturday, Lorenzo Cain's RBI single in the 11th inning lifted the Brewers to an 8-7 win.

With Wilfredo Ledezma (0-1) on the mound, Ryan Braun singled to start the frame and moved to second when Prince Fielder reached base on a Neil Walker error. After Casey McGehee flied out, Cain punched a single to left to score Braun for the win.

Fielder clubbed two home runs, while Braun added two hits and scored twice for the Brewers, who have taken the first two games of this series and are 12-5 against the Buccos this season. Chris Capuano lasted just three innings in the start and was reached for six runs on six hits with three walks.

Six Milwaukee relievers combined to pitch the remaining eight innings and gave up just one run on five hits with Kameron Loe (3-3) getting the win.

Chris Snyder hit a three-run home run, while Jose Tabata and Walker each added a solo shot for the Pirates, who have lost eight of their last 11. Zach Duke went 5 1/3 innings and was charged with four runs on nine hits.

Wwwwon Baseball Betting News

<< LA sends Lilly to mound in Colorado
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ted Lilly will try to stay unbeaten in Dodger blue this afternoon, as he takes the hill in the finale of a three-game series against the NL West-rival Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Lilly has won all five starts

<< Giants wrap up series vs. D'Backs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Giants rookie Buster Posey is a big reason for the club's success, but a forearm strain has been bothering the young catcher lately. He is expected to be back in today's lineup versus the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fin

<< 2010 World Basketball Championship update - August 29th
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Group C Halftime: China 41 Ivory Coast 33 (Ankara) Group D Halftime: Canada 43 Lithuania 33 (Izmir) Group A End of 1st Quarter: Jordan 17 Angola 16 (Kayseri) Group B End of 1st Quarter : USA 23 Slovenia 11 (Istanbul

<< Marlins' infield dirt to provide Miami a challenge
CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) -When No. 13 Miami opens its season Thursday, it's probable that some of the Hurricanes will be bloodied and scraped by the time the game ends.And it might not be Florida A&M's fault, either.The Hurricanes' roughest oppon

<< da Silva cruises to Zambia Open title
Ndola, Zambia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adilson da Silva closed with a one-under 72 Sunday to cruise to a four-shot win at the Zambia Open. The Brazilian, who was runner-up in the last Sunshine Tour event, finished the 54-hole event at 17-under

Braves go for a series win over Marlins >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National League East-leading Atlanta Braves were able to end their four-game slide with last night's win versus the Florida Marlins. This afternoon they'll try for a series victory over their division rivals in the fin

Dickey leads Mets into finale vs. Astros >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Resurgent knuckleballer R.A. Dickey aims for a second straight win and third in four decisions today, when the New York Mets close out a three-game series with the visiting Houston Astros at Citi Field. The Mets

Reds, Cubs conclude set in Cincy >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie left-hander Travis Wood steps into Edinson Volquez's spot in the Cincinnati starting rotation today, when the first-place Reds close out a three-game weekend series with the visiting Chicago Cubs at Great America

Cards' Wainwright goes for win No. 18 in Washington >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Cardinals co-ace Adam Wainwright will try to become the first 18-game winner in the National League when he takes the ball Sunday afternoon in the finale of a four-game series from Nationals Park. Wainwrigh

Richard, Padres aim to salvage set with Phils >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Padres left-hander Clayton Richard will try to keep his unbeaten streak intact and pull San Diego to victory this afternoon against the Philadelphia Phillies in the finale of a three-game series at Petco Park. Richa

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.