Braves go for a series win over Marlins

Baseball Betting Lines

08/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National League East-leading Atlanta Braves were able to end their four-game slide with last night's win versus the Florida Marlins. This afternoon they'll try for a series victory over their division rivals in the finale of a three-game set from Turner Field.

Atlanta broke out the bats in a huge way by handing the Marlins a 12-3 loss Saturday in the second test of this series. Matt Diaz homered to highlight a six-run second inning and Martin Prado belted a two-run homer and finished with a career-best five RBI for the Braves, who are still two games in front of Philadelphia in the NL East after the Phillies beat San Diego.

Eric Hinske went deep and Brian McCann drove in three runs in the win.

Braves starter Tim Hudson struck out a career-high 13 batters through seven strong innings, allowing just one run, six hits and one walk to improve to 15-5 on the season.

"I hope that I never have to try to win a game to stop a losing streak," Hudson said. "Hopefully, those losing streaks don't happen for the rest of the season. I know that you can't win them all, but I feel like whenever I go out there, I feel like we're going to have a good chance to win."

The Braves will host the New York Mets for four games after this set.

Derek Lowe draws the start for Atlanta this afternoon and has lost three straight outings. He is also only 2-7 with a 4.20 earned run average in his past 11 starts and pitched well enough for a win his last time out. In a 5-2 loss at Colorado on Tuesday, Lowe tossed six innings of three-run ball to fall to 11-12 in 27 starts to go along with a 4.33 ERA.

The lanky right-hander, who is 8-5 in 14 starts at Turner Field, will face Florida for the 19th time in his career. In 18 appearances (13 starts) against the Marlins, Lowe is 6-4 with three saves and a 5.03 ERA.

Florida had a three-game winning streak come to an end last night and was hoping to see Ricky Nolasco post his 15th win of the season. Instead Nolasco was reached for six runs, seven hits and walked three batters in only two innings of work to suffer the loss.

Andrew Miller did no better in relief and yielded four runs -- three earned -- in just four innings. Donnie Murphy, Emilio Bonifacio and Brad Davis each had an RBI for the Marlins, who dropped 6 1/2 games off the lead in the wild card race. The Marlins are also 8 1/2 games in back of Atlanta in the NL East.

"It was (deflating), but it's going to happen," Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez said of the loss. "You're going to lose ball games. Sometimes, you're going to lose them like we did today, 12-3. Sometimes, they'll be close ones, but we just have to forget about today and forget about what happened. Just bounce back, and tomorrow's a new day."

Florida should feel confident with All-Star Josh Johnson set to take the mound Sunday. Johnson, however, is only 1-2 with a 5.06 earned run average in his previous six starts. After throwing eight innings of two-run ball in a win at Pittsburgh on August 18, Johnson did not factor in the outcome of a 6-5 loss against the Mets on Tuesday.

Johnson was reached for four runs -- three earned -- and six hits in five innings at Citi Field. He remained at 11-5 in 26 starts and raised his ERA slightly from 2.27 to 2.36. The right-hander is 4-2 in 13 career games, 12 of which have been starts, against Atlanta.

The Braves are 6-5 against the Marlins this season.

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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

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Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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